Bayesian Inference in problem called LIFE

Ramanathan Sir has once mentioned a very nice implication of Bayesian in the real life. When we enter a new place (could be work place or educational institute), we have some prior beliefs about the people and system, as we stay there we are ought to have experience (that becomes data). That data slowly blends with the prior beliefs and we gradually come up with the posterior set of beliefs. As we go on and on, the experiences add, and we keep on updating the posterior.. and then there comes a time when (n is large) the prior beliefs are subdued by the experiences and that’s how for large n the weight is always more for the data. I liked it. 

I have a bit variation of the theory or you may say my own version or my doubt. My concern is about the data part of it. Suppose I am able to decompose my data in to two parts.. complete-past and the very latest part (recent-past). Now if my recent-past part of the data has got a bad patch, despite of the fact that the complete-past was very well behaved, then my posterior belief will obviously show a sudden negative surge (in terms of behavior) in it. Now here comes my query. How much will be the weight given to the recent past? When we have a bad experience with anyone or anything, do we remain calm enough to still account for the previous positive experiences? what remains in mind is only the negative present (or recent-past). We almost always tend to get the negative posterior belief and suddenly the weight to the complete-past decreases exponentially. Is it fair.. Do we have ways to resolve it?

What is running my mind is something like:

Posterior = W1.Prior  + W2.Data                          and for large n, W2>>W1

where  

Data = ??Recent-past + ??Complete-past

PS: Please don't take those "=" and "+" in literal sense. I ain't adding two events or sets :P

Post PS: Sorry for complicating both (life and Bayesian) :D ;)

Revisited

Movies.
I always thought, there is no fun in watching a serious movie for the 2nd or 3rd time. In my terms if one thinks to watch something again it should be like Chupke-Chupke, Gol Maal (ones by Hrishikesh Mukherjee, and not those new stupid ones), or Khosla ka Ghosla and Bheja Fry and Pyar ke side effects or if it comes to Hollywood, it could be She's the man or Alvin and Chipmunks. This is my definition of comedy, and I can watch them again and again and keep on laughing, in moments of boredom just catch a glimpse of few scenes and feel lighter. But gradually I realized I have watched them so many times that I wanted something different. So lately I have been revisiting many movies. I am simply amazed, wondering how entertaining they were despite of the fact they had serious issues. Sometimes I liked the tender treatment of the emotions, sometimes the energy of the characters, at others it was the life and its twists and turns which sounded so real or the people behind the scene made it sound real, and sometimes it is simply the LOVE ..my all time favorite topic :P ;) This is my revisited list.. Shawshank Redemption, Love actually, Letters to Juliet, Taare Zameen par, Dasvidaniya, A Wednesday. Watching these there was not a single skip-this- part feeling.

Pyramid Scheme.
Not everything so easy and fun when you revisit it. Sometimes it turns you into blues. For some reasons I have to reread my 4th semester project (something I did almost 2 years back). I thought it would be a pretty easy task. I had certain impression in my mind about so many things. But as in movies, when we watch them for 2nd time we realize that there are so many facts that we either missed them while watching for the first time or they totally slipped out of our mind in the mean while when it was kept aside. Same is here. I have started feeling that there are so many problems/loopholes in it which I am unable to understand now. Deep thought led me to certain justifications for these issues, which can not be actually justified :( :-/ We could have simply missed the details (we weren’t doing research back then, so didn’t have that researcher’s eye ;) you see).. or probably back then we had explanations for what we did, but since that part is not noted anywhere (to my knowledge) I am unable to locate what possibly they could be. I realized how clumsy and bad we were in report. The linkage between the literature and new theoretical work is too loose. It was possible to come up with project which was far better in terms of clarity and formulation. There was a nice paper which could have also been included (don’t know why we didn’t read it). I am surprised to realize how poor an M.Sc. student could be. I am even more surprised to see that our project topic had the possibility and scope of getting into advanced theories from stochastic.. like stopping times..

a gift

Many a times we are looking for a gift for someone, we are confused and then we end up taking suggestions from people around. Even I have done that so often. But today I realised that the most special gifts for special people in our life come straight from the heart. Because what our heart knows no one else could suggest. Next time you are on it, just ask your heart. Go for any cute perky thing that might make the special being feel more special.

Though that might appear a kuchh bhi stuff to others, and you might not be able to explain its significance, but the one for whom it is meant will be not only pleasantly surprised but will fall in love with you all over again..

PS: I am smiling looking at ..

tortsie's froggu

all that can be said has been said

When I was a fresher to blogs I always missed the presence of friends and acquaintance to the blogger world. Everyone around used to be stranger. But now when too many people are around, who are not so stranger, my feelings have turned around. There used to be a time when I felt so light once I penned down my thoughts. Everything moves on eventually. It isn’t same now. Now whenever I write few people are always there with some or the other kind of reaction.. some kind of a teasing remark, care and concern on my problems, questions and queries about the situation which led to the post, consoling in a don’t worry manner. Nowadays so often it happens that I am feeling bad, low, worried, perplexed but thought writing couldn’t be a right way out, because I don’t want sympathetic reactions. I miss those days when I used to write most depressing posts one could ever write, and don’t even have to care about reactions. Sometimes my space is all what I need. I started writing to pour down anything which I am unable to express and share with friends and family. If someone comes asking me face to face it isn’t serving the right purpose. Then comes the time when I couldn’t write anything for a while. Why I feel so answerable in every such situation. I don’t want to give any explanations beyond what I wrote. I remember a friend saying All that can be said has been said.

Sometimes I wonder, How will it feel like, turning into an anonymous blogger.

I know I sound insane because everyone in the world expects reaction on what he writes. I know I sound so contradictory at the same time because after all it isn’t my personal diary. You might title me as world’s biggest weirdo. It could be highly probable that it is just my false belief. Few might be let down/ hurt/upset. I am really sorry. But this was there in my heart and mind since long; and it has served as a block to lot of thoughts that I intended to write in last few months. I know few of you might even feel like disconnecting/stop-following me, because of this attitude, which could appear immature and arrogant. I accept it is rude. But as I said sometimes my space is all what I need.

All I want is to get back here and chatter any blah, like that sparrow in the balcony, and some space to fly. I am scared in posting this, but this is the only way that I can make my wings feel lighter, so that they are ready for the flight.